Summary of the latest from ANZ on oil
Oil prices have started the year strongly
- easing trade tension has boosted sentiment
- However, there are many lingering issues that the market needs to focus on during the year.
We expect that the OPEC+ production cuts will be paramount to keeping the market tight and supporting prices
- Evidence so far suggests producers are adhering to the agreement.
Geopolitical risks are rising strongly in the background
- threatening to sharply disrupt supply
- Waivers on US sanctions on Iran don't look like being renewed
- US sanctions on Venezuela are a distinct possibility
upcoming release of spending plans by US shale producers could dictate how US supply grows in 2019
- We suspect growth in US shale output will be lower this year.
Restrictions on the amount of sulphur in fuel oil could provide a boost to crude oil prices as shippers scramble to source alternatives
