April 2019 durable goods orders
- Prior was +2.8% (revised to +1.7%)
- Ex transport 0.0% vs +0.1% exp
- Prior ex transport +0.2% (revised to -0.5%)
- Capital goods orders non-defense ex air -0.9% vs -0.3% exp
- Prior core orders +1.0% (revised to +0.3%)
- Core capital goods shipments 0.0% vs -0.1% exp
- Full report
There isn't any good news here. Core orders were softer than expected and there were some hefty revisions lower. The March core orders number had initially been at +1.4% (which was the highest since 2017) but it's been revised all the way down to +0.3%.
The headline was anticipated to be soft because of collapsing Boeing orders following the 737 Max fiasco. Orders for non-defense aircraft fell 25.1%. However the core orders drop was broad and suggests that the trade war is weighing on purchasing as companies work down inventories. This could lead to downgrades in Q2 and Q3 GDP estimates, which are around 2%.
Here are core orders:
