Down from 28.9% on August 28
For what it's worth, the Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate for the 3rd quarter of 2020 comes in at 28.5%. That is down from 28.9% on August 28 after 2 days Manufacturing ISM report.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 28.5 percent on September 1, down from 28.9 percent on August 28. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 33.8 percent to 32.2 percent was offset by increases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real residential investment growth and third-quarter real government spending growth from 31.3 percent and 14.3 percent, respectively, to 37.2 percent and 17.0 percent, respectively.
The next update will be Thursday, September 3.
In contrast is the New York Fed's Nowcast which stands at 15.3% for 2020:Q3.
In other words, take the growth forecasts with more than an ounce of caution. We are in times where the numbers can swing around and models based on more normal swings can become quite ineffective.
We don't often report the numbers as a result of the extreme uncertainty and potential ineffectiveness of the models. Nevertheless, just having a general idea gives some perspective.
