Last estimate came in at 10.3%
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 2Q growth falls to 9.4% from 10.3% in it's last report. In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 9.4 percent on June 8, down from 10.3 percent on June 1. After last week's GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, decreases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 9.5 percent and 22.0 percent, respectively, to 9.0 percent and 18.7 percent, respectively, were slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real government spending growth from 5.3 percent to 5.7 percent. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.92 percentage points to -1.04 percentage points.
The next report will be released tomorrow.
The NY Nowcast of 2Q GDP growth tells a vastly different story with 2Q growth forecast at 4.37%.
The Atlanta Fed does provide a bit of a disclaimer saying:
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow-the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
