US third quarter growth is softening
Yesterday the Atlanta Fed boosted its Q3 tracker to 5.3% from 5.1% but today it took the axe to the estimate, dropping it to 3.7%.
The new releases incorporated are trade balance, factory orders and auto sales. The data led to a drop in assumptions about investment in equipment and next exports.
Earlier today Morgan Stanley also cut its estimate to just 2.9% from 5.3%. Importantly, they didn't see any push back in Q4, leaving it at 6.7%. Recently, Goldman and Bank of America have also sharply cut Q3 forecasts.
Given the state of auto inventories, I don't September auto sales will be any better (with the risk that Q4 could be even worse).
