Capex data due from Australia this week, Thursday 30 August at 0130GMT
File this one away until we approach, via NAB
- incoming GDP partials
- Capital Expenditure is one such partial, which will be closely watched to both solidify forecasts for the investment component of GDP and get a better guage of the emerging recovery in business investment
- NAB's forecast is for actual expenditure to lift 0.6% q/q in Q2 (mkt: 0.8% q/q) and expectations for 2018/19 to rise to $105.5 b (from $88b)
Outlook for capex is now looking more positive.
- The drag from mining capex is clearly diminishing and, encouragingly
- signs mining investment may actually pick up in the not-too-distant future
- Nevertheless, actual mining capex this quarter is still expected to have declined a relatively modest 2% q/q.
- we expect a relatively modest decline in mining capex expectations for 2018/19 - we forecast the 3rd estimate for spending to be 5.3% lower than comparable 2017/18 expectations.
non-mining capex
- the lift in investment has already begun
- is set to continue in Q2 - NAB has a rise of 1.5% q/q pencilled in
- Going forward, the outlook remains constructive, with lots of infrastructure and commercial building work supporting investment
- 2018/19 non-mining capex intentions have been on the rise
