Australian retail sales data is due at 0130GMt on 04 June 2018. The median of economists estimates (the 'expected') is

  • +0.3% m/m
  • while the previous was flat at 0.0%

Preview via NBA:

  • There's quite a wide range of forecasts, from -0.1% (NAB's estimate based on mapping from the NAB Cashless Retail Sales index), to a high estimate of 0.7%, though most are pegged at modest growth of 0.2-0.3%.
  • The NAB Cashless Index was weaker in April, down 0.6% and the weakest result since December 2017 and arguably more concerning given the weak December result was payback after the strong November print buoyed by iPhone X sales.
  • Oil prices have risen in recent months and there were significant anecdotal reports that warm weather restrained consumer spending

And, via ANZ:

  • We expect another weak result (-0.1% m/m) for retail trade in April, following the disappointing flat outcome in March.
  • With house price growth continuing to soften, and higher petrol prices eroding household budgets, we expect the consumer to remain under pressure.
  • There is an upside risk around the early Easter date, which may have depressed March sales relative to April.