The Australian employment report is due at 11.30am Sydney time on Thursday 19 July 2018

  • Which is 0130 GMT

I posted a preview (remarks from ANZ and CBA) yesterday here:

AUD traders, heads up for the jobs report due Thursday

This now via Westpac (in brief):

  • Australian employment rose 12.0k in May undershooting both the market (+19k) and Westpac's (+17k) forecasts a soft update with total hours worked falling 1.4% in the month
  • But it should be noted that hours worked are very volatile month-to-month and they rose 1.2% in April.
  • A factor that may affect June employment was the 31 May Fair Work Commission announcement of a 3.5% increase in the minimum wage, but note last year's increase of a similar scale was followed by still robust job gains. Seasonal effects are small for June employment change with June's seasonal factor for total employment slightly smaller than May's.

Westpac expect the headlines at

  • +17K for Employment Change
  • and 5.4% for Unemployment Rate

Via NAB, again in brief:

  • NAB expects ... +10K ... reflects slightly softer lead employment indicators in recent months ... That said, our experimental internal indicators of employment have rebounded in June, suggesting upside risk to our forecast.
  • unemployment rate ... this is the key metric the RBA has been using to assess spare capacity in the labour market - and thus the prospects for a pick-up in wages growth
  • With last month's 5.4% unemployment print actually a 5.40% print, there is a little latitude for the forecast lower employment print to be accommodated without the unemployment rate rising. That said much will depend on whether the participation rate remains at its new lower level this month, or rebounds.