Australian June trade balance today is expected to show continued surplus
- expected+900m AUD
- previous+827m AUD
Preview via ANZ:
- We expect the trade surplus to have improved to AUD1,000m in June. Underlying this will be an increase in shipments of iron ore and coal.
- Import growth will likely slow after it was boosted by a strong rise in consumption goods imports in May that is unlikely to be sustained. Imports of the volatile non-monetary gold segment will likely slow as well.
Via NAB:
- The trade balance feeds into expectations for the Q2 Net Exports contribution to GDP. The surplus is expected to increase this month from $827m (mkt: $900m, NAB: $1300m), driven by growth in exports- mainly from stronger commodity exports, including iron ore, coal and LNG.
- However, recent trade price data showed higher-than-expected prices for good exports. Given most of Australia's trade is in goods, these data correlate well with the overall terms of trade. All else equal, a higher terms of trade implies lower Q2 net export volume growth, and a smaller contribution to Q2 GDP. We'll report when se see the data, but have reduced our Q2 net export contribution to flat from +0.2ppt as a result. Our preliminary Q2 GDP print is +0.5/0.6% q/q.
(bolding mine)
