The consensus for the Australian retail trade report at the bottom of the hour is +0.2% but I expect the market is positioned for a more disappointing number; probably 0.0%. The RBA noted cautious demand from consumers and today’s AiG performance of services data confirmed it. Even a 0.2-0.3% fall shouldn’t hit AUD too hard. The opposite, an upside surprise (+0.4% or better) will give AUD a heartier boost.

Of course, nothing happens in a bubble, Tokyo looks to be selling risk aggressively so far.