AUD/JPY continues slide. A look at implied volatility next week
A preview of the week ahead with implied volatility
In the Week Ahead video I touch on AUDJPY 1-week implied vols, which have been contained into 10% and where a break higher would offer a bearish message for equities and alike. That said, we continue to watch USDCNH, especially with the Chinese financial system ready to crank up again, with the prospect of the PBoC flooding the markets with liquidity. As we see, USDCNH is finding sellers into the top of the bear channel and should we see the CNH find further buyers (USDCNH lower) then I could see a situation where AUDUSD moves a tad higher, with risk stabilising in EM FX.
A big if, of course, and when we consider the global economy there are other moving parts to consider such as US ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls which will be event risks.
As we see from the Implied vols matrix, vols are a touch higher from last week, something we had anticipated given the dynamics shaping up in the US bond market and while I stay cautious, I will be watching price action and reacting to any possible turn in sentiment. I am watching US politics far more closely this week, with the Iowa Caucus due to start on Monday 8 PM EST (12 PM AEDT Tuesday). And as highlighted in more depth in the gold outlook video, any situation where Bernie Sanders takes a step closer to the Democrat nominee raises the prospect of traders hedging risk with the likes of gold, JPY and USTs.
Please do click on the video, which I hope helps prepare traders best navigate the murky waters ahead. Note that it was recorded before Friday's big selloff in North America and the jump in volatility.