CBA morning commentary on the Australian dollar

AUD/USD is trading firmly around 0.7770

  • faces upside risks this week

Encouraging Chinese economic activity and constructive Australian March employment conditions will underpin a firmer AUD

  • Leading indicators suggest China's economy will likely grow at an annual pace of 8.8% in Q1 driven by steady consumption and investment (Tuesday)
  • This will support commodity prices and Australia's terms of trade.

In Australia. we anticipate the economy to add 25k jobs in March (Thursday) making it seventeen consecutive months of jobs increase.

AUD/USD needs to sustain a break above its 200-day moving average (0.7818) to gain upside momentum.