August non-farm payrolls +130K vs +160K expected

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Highlights of the August 2019 non-farm payrolls report:


  • Prior was +164K (revised to +159K)
  • Estimates ranged from +110K to +232K
  • Two month net revision -20K
  • Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.7% expected (prior 3.7%)
  • Participation rate 63.2% vs 63.0% prior
  • Avg hourly earnings +0.4% vs +0.3% exp
  • Avg hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs +3.0% exp
  • Prior avg hourly earnings 3.2% (revised to 3.3%)
  • Avg weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.4 exp
  • Private payrolls +96K vs +150K exp
  • Manufacturing +3K vs +5K expected
  • U6 underemployment 7.2% vs 7.0% prior
This isn't such a bad number. The two tick rise in participation combined with steady unemployment is a good sign and the rise in wage growth is good sign.

The average over the past three months is +156K so this is a decent number, albeit a bit soft on the private side and census hiring added 25K jobs so that saved it from being even softer.
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