Naturally it took a knock on the poor manufacturing data but the recovery from the lows will be encouraging.

We found support just ahead of the 55 dma and 13 Feb low at 0.8925 and are back above the short term Dec resistance line at 0.8978. I’d like to see it hold on a test and a close above could add some upward momentum back into the pair.

AUD/USD daily chart 20 02 2014

AUD/USD daily chart

While it’s encouraging to see it bounce back from the Chinese numbers there’s no reason to get carried away and as is often the case in this pair it needs to keep breaking the levels if it’s to claw itself higher. At the moment that level is 0.9075/80. If we fail up here then the 0.8925/30 level will be the first support area, then 0.8900/05 and 0.8888.

We’re still also holding above the 100 mma at 0.8951 and I’d like to see a close above that come the end of the month as that would keep the upside in focus also.