I posted some previews (ANZ) earlier here: Australian data due tomorrow starts a big week
More previews, this time via Westpac:
July dwelling approvals
- Last: 10.9%,
- Westpac forecast: -4.0%
- Mkt f/c: -5.0%,
- Range: -12% to +1%
Dwelling approvals posted a surprisingly strong 10.9% rebound in June, coming off a 5.4% drop in May. High rise approvals jumped 14% but non-high rise segments also posted a strong gain
- The high rise move is most likely monthly volatility that will unwind in July. The firming in other segments may be more enduring though with construction-related finance approvals showing a notable lift in Q2 (the number of approvals for construction up 7.2%qtr). The combined effect is likely to see only a partial retracement in July with total approvals expected to be down 4% but still up on May levels, reflecting the lift in non-high rise segments.
Q2 construction work
- Last: -0.7%,
- WBC f/c: 1.0%
- Mkt f/c: 1.0%,
- Range: -3% to +1%
Construction activity weakened over the past three years as the downturn in private infrastructure (centred on mining) outweighed gains elsewhere.
• In 2017, the first half was a choppy one. Work fell in Q1, -0.7%, dented by weather disruptions. In Q2, work rose by a forecast 1.0%, with the return to more normal conditions.
• Private infrastructure (about 25% of the total) is expected to report a solid (but not rapid) fall, -4%, as the winding down of work on gas projects nears its end.
• Private building activity advances by a forecast 3%. Residential should rebound from the weather disrupted -4.8% in Q1 and commercial building is also likely to rise.
• Public works (around 20% of the total) should be a positive, led by transport projects, increasing by a forecast 3%.
