The data due is for August. I am racking my brain trying to recall anything at all from August :-D
Anyway ...
I posted a preview of these two pieces of data yesterday, here: AUD traders - big data day Thursday coming up- retail sales and trade balance (preview)
Now, here is moar!
Preview via NAB ... the bank have their own proprietary indicator to a segment of retail sales, and have included indications from that into their thoughts on what to expect ... read on :
- Retail Sales o... shaping up to be interesting with the market expecting a bounce back to +0.3% m/m from the flat outcome last month.
- NAB's own Cashless Indicator based on electronic transactions is suggestive of downside risks and is more consistent with a -0.5% m/m outcome.
- Department store Myer also reported the first six weeks of FY2018 as "below expectations" (from 28 July so most of August), while a warm winter/early spring may have also contributed to weaker winter clearance sales.
- NAB is consequently forecasting a well below consensus print of -0.3% m/m, though we have moderated the size of the decline given by the Cashless Indicator because our online retail sales indicator was very strong in the month
NAB on the trade balance:
- ... the market thinks it will tip further into surplus with NAB and the market tipping a $0.8bn surplus, up from July's $0.5bn. Better iron ore exports (volumes and prices - at least in August) should add bulk to the trade surplus.
