Australia election coming up - impact of a change of government
The polls are tight, they usually are on approach to an Oz election.
- Opposition is slightly ahead.
- Oh, the election date is Saturday 18 May iCYMI
On economic policy there are differences between the two contenders, the incumbent government and the opposition (I'll leave the hair splitting to the psephologists). But the net impact of a change of government is likely to be a slightly tighter fiscal policy, but spending perhaps more targeted at those likely to spend and give the economy a boost.
- raised taxes on higher income earners
- lower taxes for lower income earners
- more government spending targeted at lower income earners.
The economic background is
- solid jobs growth (for now at least)
- falling house prices
- slow wage growth
- Government infrastructure spending is ripping right now and that will not change much either way
Something to aware of any impact of a change of government has on business sentiment. Which is already in the gutter:
- More from the NAB business survey (on jobs and the RBA)
- ICYMI - Australian business confidence 0 (prior -1) and conditions 3 (prior 7)
- Australia business confidence up one point in April
I posted on this a few months ago, a scenario outlook from TD: