Australia inflation data, Q1 2021 Headline CPI 0.6% q/q (expected 0.9%)

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Australian CPI for the January to March quarter of 2021. 

Headline is 0.6% q/q 

  • expected 0.9% q/q, prior 0.9%

     and 1.1% y/y 
  • expected 1.4% y/y , prior 0.9%

Core inflation measures:

Trimmed mean 0.3% q/q 

  • expected 0.5 % q/q, prior 0.4%

      and 1.1% y/y (for some context ... this is the lowest reading ever  - my chart goes back to the early 1980s)
  • expected 1.2% y/y, prior 1.2% (note, RBA target for core inflation is 2-3%)

Weighted median 0.4% q/q

  • expected 0.5% q/q, prior 0.5%

      and 1.3% y/y 
  • expected 1.3% y/y, prior was 1.4%

All 3 are under central expectations. Knee-jerk AUD response is lower. 

As a reminder, if you need, the RBA target for core inflation is 2 to 3%. Q1 2021 core inflation indicators (trimmed mean and weighted median) are both well under the lower band. 


Base effects (for y/y reads) are still a quarter away, for example headline inflation is likely to be above 3% y/y in Q2. The bump above 3% is expected to be just that, to be 'transitory'. The following diminution of base effects in Q3 should see CPI dip lower again.  

Anyway, this is all in the future. Not related to today's data release. For now we'll have to be satisfied with a well-under expected CPI for this quarter just passed. 

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