Australia jobs data for August due today - labour market report preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

The Australian employment report is due on Thursday 19 September 2019 at 0130GMT

  • Employment Change, expected 15K, prior 41.1K
  • Unemployment Rate, expected 5.2%, prior 5.2%
  • Full Time Employment Change, prior was 34.5K
  • Part Time Employment Change, prior was 6.7K
  • Participation Rate, expected 66.0%, prior was 66.1%
The employment market is near the top of the long list of RBA concerns. While jobs growth has been hanging in there the bank would like unemployment lower (circa 4.5% seems to be an unofficial sort of 'target') to help drive inflationary pressures. 

Preview posted yesterday: 
Adding some snippets from 
ANZ:
  • leading indicators point to a slowdown in employment growth. 
  • Following stronger-than expected employment gains in July, we anticipate a small rise of 5k in August. This could see the unemployment rate tick up to 5.3%.
Westpac:
  • employment remains quite robust 
  • The pace of employment growth has eased back from 2.9%yr in May but it is still stronger than the 2.2%yr at the end of 2018
  • Our Jobs Index suggests employment should be growing around 2.4%yr currently before slowing to 2.1%yr through Q4
  • Our forecast ... will see the annual pace of growth dip to 2.3%yr, the slowest pace since February, more in line with what our Jobs Index is suggesting
  • In July, unemployment was flat at 5.2% …  the labour force grew a very solid 41.9k
  • With participation forecast to hold flat at 66.1% a 7k gain in employment will see unemployment lift to 5.3%

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