Australia jobs report preview (risk of more negatives for the AUD)

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Scanning through TD's preview of the Australian employment report. 

Pretty dour reading. 
Summary follows. 
It begins with a recap of the wages data yesterday:
  • Q1 Wage Price Index.... marginally weaker than expected … challenges the RBA base case that wage growth is expected to gradually improve. In reality it has stopped dead. 
  • … reports continue to underwhelm RBA expectations/targets
And then:
  • US-China trade tape bombs have weighed down the AUD, forcing it through $US0.700 support earlier this month
For today:
  • …  employment report. We look for +17k
  • but the risks are tilted towards part-time employment and a pickup in the unemployment rate to 5.1%
  • This outcome can be expected to keep weighing on the AUD
TD's call is for the RBA to cut rates in August and then again in November.
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Earlier posts of relevance to the AUD. Jobs data previews: 

The wages data ICYMI:
More:

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