Australia jobs report preview (risk of more negatives for the AUD)

Scanning through TD's preview of the Australian employment report.

Pretty dour reading.

Summary follows.

It begins with a recap of the wages data yesterday:

• Q1 Wage Price Index.... marginally weaker than expected … challenges the RBA base case that wage growth is expected to gradually improve. In reality it has stopped dead.
• … reports continue to underwhelm RBA expectations/targets

And then:

• US-China trade tape bombs have weighed down the AUD, forcing it through $US0.700 support earlier this month

For today:

• … employment report. We look for +17k
• but the risks are tilted towards part-time employment and a pickup in the unemployment rate to 5.1%
• This outcome can be expected to keep weighing on the AUD

TD's call is for the RBA to cut rates in August and then again in November.

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Earlier posts of relevance to the AUD. Jobs data previews:

Australian labour market report due Thursday 16 May 2019 - preview

Australian labour market report due Thursday 16 May 2019 at 0130GMT - preview

The wages data ICYMI:

• Australia Wage price index for Q1: 0.5% q/q (expected 0.6%)

More:

• Citi expect an RBA cut in August, Morgan Stanley the same
• Citi forecast an RBA rate cut in August