National Australia Bank Business Survey for July, the twin 'headline' numbers are confidence and conditions

Confidence collapses to -8 from 11 the previous month

  • 2nd month in a row of a very sharp drop

Conditions smashed lower also to 11 from 25 in June (June revised up a point)

  • 11 is nevertheless above the long term average

Sub measures:

  • trading/sales fell 20 points to +12 (i.e. 32 in June)
  • profitability +6 (prior +25)
  • employment index +10 (+18 prior)
  • Capacity utilisation 81.2%
  • forward orders -6 (from +15)

Comments from the NAB report:

  • "The survey shows that the strength in the business sector seen in early-to-mid 2021 has faded on the back of fresh disruptions in the economy but it has not yet deteriorated to the lows seen in early 2020.
  • With the survey showing a very strong momentum in the lead up to the recent lockdowns, the hope is that once restrictions are eased, the economy will rebound relatively quickly."


NAB's survey was conducted from July 20-30


These are dreadful results.

Sydney's lockdown will extend to at least the end of August while Melbourne's will extend (was scheduled to end Thursday this week but with rising cases it will not) for how long remains to be seen. Thus, August's survey doesn't look like it'll have much basis for being any better. Sydney (population 5.2m) and Melbourne (4.9m) are, by a long way (next largest city is 2.5m population), Australia's largest two cities, lockdowns in these two have outsized national economic impacts.

Australia July Business Confidence


Background to this is here: