NAB business survey for January to March 2020

Business confidence comes in at -11, its lowest since the GFC impacted Q1 of 2009

  • prior -2 (revised down from -1)

Conditions -4, from prior 8

Profitability -8, from 7

Employment intention -1, from 7

Exports -6, from 11

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The quarterly survey differs to the monthly survey

  • The quarterly NAB Business Survey gives a more in-depth probe into the conditions facing Australian business than the monthly survey, and also provides extra information about how firms perceive the outlook for their respective industries.
  • The quarterly survey has a bigger sample than the monthly, and has additional metrics such as expected capital expenditure (12m ahead) and expected employment (12m ahead). Both are good sources of information for the intentions of businesses to invest in capital and labour.

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Other data out at the same time were for job vacancies, the 3 months to February 2020

  • -0.1%, vs. prior +1.2%

February reflected some of the bushfire impact but the smashing impact from coronavirus is yet be reflected. March will be dreadful.