There will be much focus on the capex data today, I've posted a few previews already

But, its also retail trade data day!

  • Due at 0130GMT
  • Retail sales for April, expected +0.3% m/m & prior -0.1%
  • Yesterday we got the private sector (NAB) survey for retail, in brief ... if its any guide to today's retail sales its not gonna be strong!

Here are some brief comments from banks on what to expect on the retail data today, bolding mine:

ANZ:

  • Expecting a small rise in retail sales in April (after two consecutive declines)
  • Trend remains weak
  • ANZ think households have likely kept the purse strings tight
  • Consumers appear cautious about household finances, with consumer confidence trending lower amid weak wage growth, rising energy bills, high levels of household debt and rising expectations that house price growth will moderate
  • Another negative outcome would be worrying - the last time sales fell for three consecutive months was in late 1999/early 2000

Westpac:

  • Retail sales dipped 0.1% in March following a 0.2% decline in February and a 0.5% gain in January
  • Cyclone Debbie and abnormally wet weather over the eastern states had a significant impact in March - Queensland was the hardest hit, saw retail sales fall 1.3%
  • April will clearly see some rebound from weather effects
  • However, this is against a weak consumer backdrop with sentiment weakening in early 2017 amid increased pressures on family finances
  • Private sector business surveys continue to point to retail underperforming non-retail consumer sectors as well
  • With price discounting an ongoing drag on nominal sales as well we expect the rebound in monthly retail sales to be fairly muted with just a 0.3% gain overall

RBC:

  • Retail sales have been particularly weak of late, with the monthly average barely 0.1% over the last six months
  • Some payback for two consecutive negative monthly prints is likely in April, but we have long highlighted the challenges for the consumer-weak wages growth, high levels of debt, still elevated unemployment-which remain intact
  • We look for a corrective bounce of 0.3% in April although this is unlikely to challenge the tepid trend.