Westpac Leading Index barely changed again on the month.

WPAC comments from their report:

  • The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed from 1.68% in May to 1.34% in June.
  • On July 20 Westpac revised its near-term growth forecasts to take account of the lock-downs in both NSW and Victoria.
  • We now expect that the NSW economy will contract by 3.1% in the September quarter and the Victorian economy will contract by 0.1%.
  • That assumes the NSW lockdown will last a total of eight weeks and the Victorian lockdown three weeks. Contractions in the two biggest states will mean that the national economy is likely to contract by 0.7% in the September quarter.

Further out:

  • We expect the economy to bounce back once measures bring outbreaks under control
  • Further disruptions should become more limited as border controls tighten and vaccination rates surge - the latter likely to get a big boost once adequate supplies of Pfizer and Moderna arrive from August on and as vaccination hesitancy/complacency tumbles