Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey will deliver the budget tonight. its due at 0930GMT
Footy today ... can kick later tonight
Market expectations are for a budget deficit of $A40bn
- Joe reckons it won't be that high - Australian Treasurer Hockey: Says budget deficit will be under market forecasts
Regardless, the budget deficit isn't going away anytime soon ...
Comments from ANZ (bolding mine):
- "The 2015-16 Commonwealth budget will be released at 7:30pm AEST tonight.
- The fiscal trajectory will be revised down in this year's budget in response to a weaker economy and a tougher political environment, with the deficit still improving over the forecast period but at a slower pace than previously forecast
- Any forecast of a return to surplus will be pushed out, beyond the four year forecast period
- The economic parameters will be lowered, and there will undoubtedly be plenty of focus on iron ore prices and the terms of trade
- On balance, expect a conservative set of forecasts"
Comments from RBS (bolding mine):
- "Australia releases its annual budget on Tuesday, and the worsening medium-term outlook, and fall in terms-of-trade, has weakened the fiscal outlook
- The worsening fiscal picture is another medium-term concern that may weigh on the AUD
- Even-so, the AUD has been supported in the near-term by position clearing - the latest IMM report shows investors are now net long of AUD for the first time since last September - and a more constructive- sounding RBA, even despite a downgraded growth assessment in the Statement on Monetary Policy
- Governor Stevens has also expressed lowered enthusiasm about rate cuts in recent speeches, largely because the committee worries that the impacts of rate cuts may be dampened by already high levels of leverage
- That may mean it would take a slowdown in credit growth or domestic activity to unlock additional easing"
