The May National Australia Bank Business Survey

Confidence 7

  • prior 0

Conditions 1

  • prior 3

That's a better result for confidence - its been at low levels for months and months. A response to the election result. The caveat on these figures is that the 'conditions' is a more objective measure than 'confidence'.

Some of the pertinent highlights from NAB:

Business confidence rose sharply … but given its low starting point, only shows a just-above-average read

  • Confidence is probably post-election and rate cut expectations related

Business conditions weakened further in the month … is now well below average … around 20 pts below their peak in early 2018

  • fall in the month was driven by a decline in trading and profitability
  • employment index rose to its average level in the month but remains notably weaker than 3 months ago

At current levels, and based on historical relationships, the survey suggests that employment will likely grow around 18k per month, over the next 6 months

  • this rate of employment demand is unlikely to see further reductions in the unemployment rate.

more to come