The Aussie had a poor night, its down more than 100 points from yesterday’s highs. The RBA release minutes from their August 6 policy board meeting today (due at 0130GMT). Many analysts said after the latest rate cut (25 bp cut on August 6) that the RBA is now done for this easing cycle. The language used in the accompanying statement to the cut was certainly less dovish than it had been previously, the RBA dropped its easing bias with the ‘scope to cut further’ wording gone, replaced with “The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed”.
I think it is too early to declare an end to the easing cycle; it is, as the RBA as good as said, data-dependent. The next RBA meeting is only two weeks away (September 3). These minutes will be pored over for clues on the RBA’s view on labour markets, the inflation outlook, their view on global market developments and the AUD. (Note that since the August 6 meeting the RBA have released their quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy – on August 9 – summary here, full text here – so there are unlikely to be any substantial departures from that statement in today’s minutes).
I’ll have theAUD orderboard up soon, but early information has sellers lined up 0.9140/50, and bids ahead of 0.9100.
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ADDED: ps. I should add, although I’ve said the next RBA meeting is September 3, there is very, very little chance of a cut at this meeting (IMO). OIS is pricing in just a 9% chance
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ADDED more: I have posted an updated AUD orderboard here
