Australian employment report for June - preview
The Reserve Bank of Australia aims to drive unemployment lower, circa 4.5%.
The most recent jobs report (for May) had the rate at 5.2%. Of course, the June report will not show 4.5% or even close, its a goal off in the distance. The thing to watch for is any tick higher in the rate.
Markets are currently relaxed that the RBA is on hold and in monitoring mode. A further rate cut is expected no earlier than November. But, yeah, if the u/e rate ticks higher in the report today then thoughts will turn to an earlier cut than then. Which would be a negative input for the Australian dollar.
What to watch:
- Employment Change: K expected +9.0K, prior +42.3K
- Unemployment Rate: 5.2% expected %, prior 5.2%
- Full Time Employment Change: K prior was +2.4K
- Part Time Employment Change: K prior was +39.8K
- Participation Rate: % expected 65.9%, prior was 66.0%
Adding a little more, via TD:
- forecast +5k for headline employment change
- unemployment rate steady at 5.2%
- participation rate 66%
- "The risk is for the unemployment rate to edge higher should more people be looking for work."
- forecasting +10k employment change
- unemployment rate 5.1%
- a pull-back in the participation rate