Employment Change and the jobless rater are the twin headlines
Employment Change: K expected 35K, prior 88.7K
Unemployment Rate: 5.7% expected %, prior 5.8%
Full-Time Employment Change: K prior was 89.1K
Part-Time Employment Change: K prior was -0.5K
Participation Rate: % expected 66.1%, prior was 66.1%
Some snippets on what analysts are expecting. Westpac:
- Leading indictors of employment, such as weekly payrolls, job vacancies and the various business surveys all suggest labour demand continued to strengthen through March and into April.
- As such we see upside risks to our +32k forecast.
- Rising participation is muting the improvement in unemployment.
Scotia:
- Australia will shoot for a sixth consecutive material job gain
- Australia has already recouped all of the jobs lost to the pandemic in an experience that has been similar to Canada's experience
- These two open economies can of course be buffeted by global shocks, but they are generally repeating the greater-than-average resilience that marked their experiences during the GFC
