The data (from earlier):
- Australian housing finance for November 2013: Home loans 1.1% m/m (expected +1.0% & prior +1.0%)
- Investment lending 1.5 % m/m, prior was +8.2%
- Owner-occupied loan value -0.7 % m/m, prior was +1.7%
Courtesy of CBA:
Summary:
- The total value of housing-related lending increased by 1.7% in November, to be up a strong 24.5% over the past year.
- The value of loans to investors rose by 1.5% to be 34% higher than a year ago.
- The number of loans to owner-occupier rose by 1.1% to be 15.3% higher than a year ago. (& 30% higher (by value) than a year ago)
- FHB (first home buyers) lending deteriorated marginally in November, to be just 12.3% of loans, the lowest level since 1991.
- Low mortgage rates are still driving lending higher. We expect rates to stay unchanged till late this year.
- loans to investors and owner-occupiers on a solid uptrend
- Lending for new construction by investors and owner-occupiers rose by nearly 1% in November to be 25% higher over the past year.
The RBA has noted that rising house prices are part of the normal reaction to continued near record-low mortgage rates. Higher house prices will be a positive for an upturn in dwelling investment and new supply which is required given firm annual population growth of 407k. At this stage dwelling prices appear to have some more upside as long as interest rates remain low. We expect the RBA will keep the cash rate on hold at 2.50% over most of 2014. There is a risk of a rate rise around the end of the year if, as we expect, the inflation pressures continue to build amid clear signs of an improvement in the jobs market.
The full report from CBA is here. (PDF)
(Thanks to CBA)
