Coming up at 0030 GMT on 14 Oct is the Australian employment report for September

  • Employment Change: K expected -120K, prior -146.3K

  • Unemployment Rate: % expected 4.8%, prior 4.5%

  • Full-Time Employment Change: K prior was -68K

  • Part-Time Employment Change: K prior was -78.2K

  • Participation Rate: % expected 64.7%, prior was 65.2%

The view from Scotia on what to expect is succinct:

  • The Aussie labour market has fallen victim to a surge in Delta cases that led to stringent lockdowns and a halt in job creation.
  • August jobs fell by 146k with further deterioration anticipated through September and October as lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne remain in place. Consensus estimates another loss in excess of 100k jobs for September
  • At risk is wiping out the year-to-date rise in employment.

Good points.

Westpac also with a good point, speaking about the fall in the unemployment rate in the previous month's figures:

  • does this fall in unemployment mean the Australian labour market is a good as it was during the peak of the 2000's mining boom?
  • No, in fact it is far from it. Hours worked are a better measure of overall economic activity and they decreased by 3.7% in Aug compared to the 1.1% decline in employment.


For the Australian dollar, the response will be somewhat influenced by the movement into the release, there is still 20+ hours to go. A downside surprise will be discounted with Sydney beginning its reopening and Melbourne on the verge of doing so, thus the economy is expected to bounce back. An upside surprise will be unlikely to prompt any thoughts of a move from the RBA, the Bank is insistent it'll be 2024 before it hikes rates.

AUD is hostage to offshore developments, not domestic data.