Big job losses to come?

Australian employment

The lockdowns started in July and there is currently little hope that they're end any time soon. NSW reported record cases yesterday and Victoria hit a record today.

The consensus for today's jobs report, which is due at 0130 GMT:

  • Employment -46.2K jobs (estimates from -90K to +20K)
  • Unemployment rate 5.0% from 4.9% prior
  • Participation rate 66.0% vs 66.2% prior

The final thing we'll be watching is the skew in full/part-time employment. In June, full time jobs were up 51.6K compared to 29..1K total job gains (part-time jobs declined).

The highest estimate for Aussie jobs comes from Westpac:

Westpac expects a 20k lift in July employment, with Sydney's lockdown-lite restrictions reflecting more pressure on hours worked. The ABS Weekly Payrolls fell 2.4% in the two weeks to 17 July, compared to a revised -0.2% for fortnight ending 3 July. Payrolls are not seasonally adjusted; they measure only people paid in the week so those working zero hours but still employed are not counted. Our +20k forecast in the official survey is a flat print in original terms. With flat participation (WBC f/c: 66.2%), this would see the unemployment rate edge down to 4.8%.

The Australian dollar is vulnerable at the moment as it tests the lows of the year on a number of fronts, particularly AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.