Australian labour market report due Thursday 16 May 2019 at 0130GMT - preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

I posted earlier the expected and priors for the jobs data:

  • Employment Change: expected 15K, prior 25.7K
  • Unemployment Rate: expected 5.0%, prior 5.0%
  • Full Time Employment Change, prior was 48.3K
  • Part Time Employment Change, prior was -22.6K
  • Participation Rate, expected is 65.7%, prior 65.7%
And also this:
  • business surveys have started to deteriorate
  • our Jobs Index has turned down and is now suggesting that employment growth should slow to around 2%yr in Q3
  • Westpac's forecast of +10k results in a 2.5%yr annual pace
  • With our forecast for +10k rise in employment, if we hold the participation rate flat at 65.7% then we get a 17.8k rise in the labour force lifting the unemployment rate to 5.1% from 5.0%. 

  • We expect a gain of 20k in employment
  • steady participation rate of 65.7%
  • unemployment rate to hold at 5%
  • The leading indicators including job vacancies and the NAB Business survey employment component continue to show signs of jobs growth around the 20k mark. 
(ps. The CBA note is from prior to the latest NAB buinseess survey)

  • RBA appears to have lowered the hurdle for a rate cut to one where policy easing could be delivered if the unemployment rate doesn't decline in coming months. 
  • We look for employment to have risen by a moderate 15k in April and for the unemployment rate to have remained at 5%. 
  • The risks appear skewed to a 5.1% print for the jobless rate given it was 5.048% in March. 
Of note from earlier is this:

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