I posted earlier on what is expected from the data:
For the March figure, a large surge is expected on the back of households stocking up going into lock down. Huge buying of products like toilet and other paper products, rice, pasta and such left shelves bare and will be reflected in a large m/m increase in retail sales. Sales were also strong for work-from-home related products (office supplies).
Also released will be Q1 retail sales data, which will also rise substantially, though given the surge late in the quarter the impact here will be less extreme,
For the AUD, its sensible to think the expectations are not only built-in to the rate currently but also that we'll all be sensible enough to recognise the stale nature of this data. Yeah, right! I suspect a strong result will see a short-lived bounce in AUD regardless. On the other hand, a miss will likely prompt some weakness. All else being equal of course.
