I'll post up the responses to the September quarter GDP data as they come in
RBA Governor Stevens was the first I saw! ... RBA Governor Stevens on the Q3 GDP result: 'Not a bad outcome'
More from Stevens' Q&A:
- Q3 GDP growth was a touch above bank's forecasts
- Says he has no further guidance on rates, "chilling out or otherwise"
- Says interest rates are very low, but more could be done if needed
- Says too much reliance on central banks globally to ensure economic growth
- Little evidence non-mining business investment is responsive to interest rates
- Not possible to dismiss strength of last employment data, run of figures have been solid
Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital:
- Aus Q3 GDP ... Stronger than it looks as net exports contributed 1.5%pts
- Aust domestic final demand fell -0.5%qoq
- Business investment -4.2% & pub spending -1.2% only partly offset by housing +2% & consumer +0.7%
- The terms of trade fell 2.4%qoq to a new low seeing the income recession continue (real net national disposable income is -1.2%yoy)
- Productivity growth in the market sector was good (+2%yoy), real unit labour cost growth is weak (+0.7%yoy) & Household price deflator is just 1.6%yoy
- Australian household savings rate fell to 9%, but remains high... indicating households have a strong buffer on which to draw on if needed
- Underlying Australian growth still sub-par. That said, its still motoring along and a long way from the recession many saw as inevitable
- Q3 GDP growth should be seen as payback for the very weak June quarter. Average of the two is 0.6%qoq..which is probably a better guide
Westpac Economics:
- Aust consumption a bit stronger at 0.7% in Q3, but annual growt still modest @ 2.7%
- Omitting 1.5ppt net export add, despite consumption growth Q3 domestic demand -0.5% as public & private investment falls
- Consumption growth funded by dis-saving: real household income up just 0.1% in Q3 as household savings rate falls 0.4ppts to 9.0%
ANZ's Justin Fabo:
- Australian government consumption spending up 3.6% y/y after a period of weakness. Fiscal restraint has eased...