Australian quarterly business confidence due today ... behind the headline is important

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

From the National Australia Bank we get their quarterly Business Confidence survey result today

It'll include business conditions and capital expenditure plans for the next 12 months

We do get a monthly business conditions and confidence report from the NAB (link to the latest). The quarterly survey, though, has a larger sample size and asks more detailed questions.

  • For the 'headline', prior was +4 in the previous quarter

But ... it's the capex and hiring intentions behind this headline that will garner most of the attention.

Says NAB:

We will be paying particular attention to the capex expectations, and what this may mean for a prospective recovery in non-mining investment - which remains the missing piece in the RBA's transition story to non-mining led growth

Recall the ABS Q2Capex survey was still pointing to very subdued non-mining investment intentions in the year ahead

The NAB Quarterly Survey measure of capex expectations for the 12-monthsahead has a fairly close relationship with actual investment and is currently pointing to an increase of around 5% in annual terms - suggestive of a timid recovery in non-mining investment (Chart 2)


There are a few moving parts in this release today ...

Given the prevalence of stops under 0.7200 and 0.7190 a disappointment should see AUD/USD marked lower. Unless the stops are hit before release time (0030GMT) of course. Note, though there are still bids around 0.7200 providing support there. A good result on the survey today should be supportive for the AUD/

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