Preliminary Retail Sales for June
expected -0.5% m/m, prior +0.4%
The backdrop to this data is:
- lock-downs in Melbourne for two weeks from May 28
- and then in the back part of June for Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Darwin
hence the consensus call for -0.5%.
But ... July will be even worse:
- Sydney will have been in lockdown for the whole month
- Victoria's "5-day" lockdown will last (at least) 12 days (an extension was announced yesterday)
- South Australia also announced a 7-day lockdown yesterday
And, noting this from WPAC, who are above consensus at -0.2% m/m:
- a sharp contraction in hours worked in Vic points to a material impact on activity. On balance we expect retail sales to show a 0.2% decline. It should be noted that lock-downs tend to generate gains for sectors like basic food which accounts for 40% of total retail sales.