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SG on what the expect from the figures today(in brief)

  • Both exports and imports are likely to show strong month-on-month growth of 2.0~2.5%, which would result in a record-high trade surplus of AUD5.2bn.
  • The strength in exports would continue to be driven by iron ore: both prices (at the Port of Qingdao) and volumes (from Port Hedland) showed a sizeable pickup in May. Coal exports will show a modest gain after an 11.6% dip in April, while rural goods and non-monetary gold exports are not likely to show any meaningful changes from the previous month.
  • The strength in imports can be considered as part of the normalisation process after the dip seen between December 2018 and March 2019.

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Further out SG expect t a gradual slowdown in exports and imports, resulting in what they say will be a "modest decline" of the trade surplus.

Citing:

  • pace of increase in iron ore exports to moderate
  • slowdown of the global economy to gradually weigh on exports
  • ongoing slowdown in domestic demand to limit import growth