Bank of America / Merrill Lynch research note on Australia, the 'key takeaways':
The bank says it is more concerned about the domestic outlook but sensing external factors are being overlooked
- While AUD's sensitivity to global risk has diminished, China-specific risk still matters despite recent decoupling
- AUD could benefit if China's import impulse strengthens; watch high frequency shipment and steel data for early signs
(bolding mine)
More on the bolded:
- From an economic perspective, the focus on slowing domestic demand potentially overlooks a sizeable external impulse from China easing policy and the weak/undervalued level of the AUD.
- ... a likely recovery in Chinese growth later this year keeps us comfortable with projecting medium-term AUD appreciation