Highlights of the fourth quarter survey:
As I highlighted, these numbers leaked early.
- Investment intentions +11 vs +28 prior
- Employment +43 vs +31 prior
- Some or significant capacity pressures 53 vs 50 prior
- Cost pressures +13 vs -7 prior
- Output prices -4 vs +5 prior
- Overall business sentiment +0.43 vs -0.07 prior
- Full report
The charts in the Q3 release (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/10/business-outlook-survey-autumn-2019/) were updated before these were published. I saw them about 8 minutes before the release but I have no idea how long they were up there.
That's a black eye for the Bank of Canada.
In terms of the numbers, they're mostly softer with future sales and investment intentions falling but employment and cost pressures were a bit tighter so that balances it somewhat. CAD is a bit higher on the headlines but with oil still on the lows, that doesn't make much sense unless we're just going on the overall sentiment indicator, which I would argue is a bad idea.
