Release: Bank of Portugal Spring 2011 Economic Bulletin
Source: Bank of Portugal
weights Econ Bulletin Econ Bulletin
– Spring – – Winter –
(2010) 2010 2011p 2012p 2010 2011p 2012p
———————————————————————–
GDP* | 100.0 1.4 -1.4 0.3 1.3 -1.3 0.6 |
———————————————————————–
Private
Consumption | 66.6 2.0 -1.9 -1.0 1.8 -2.7 -0.5 |
———————————————————————–
Public
Consumption | 21.3 3.2 -6.6 -1.0 3.2 -4.6 -1.0 |
———————————————————————–
Gross Fixed
Capital Formation | 19.5 -4.8 -5.6 -1.3 -5.0 -6.8 -0.4 |
———————————————————————–
Domestic Demand | 107.6 0.8 -3.6 -1.0 0.5 -3.6 -0.5 |
———————————————————————–
Exports | 28.0 8.7 6.0 6.5 9.0 5.9 6.1 |
———————————————————————–
Imports | 35.6 5.3 -1.6 2.0 5.0 -1.9 2.4 |
———————————————————————–
GDP contributions:
– from Net Exports | 0.5 2.5 1.4 0.7 2.5 1.1 |
————————————-
– from Domestic Demand | 0.9 -3.9 -1.1 0.6 -3.9 -0.6 |
– including inventory ————————————-
changes | -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.0 |
———————————————————————–
Current & Capital
Account Balances (%GDP) | -8.7 -8.9 -8.3 -8.8 -7.1 -7.0 |
————————————-
Goods & Services
Trade Balance (%GDP) | -6.5 -5.5 -3.7 -6.4 -3.9 -2.9 |
————————————-
EU Harmonized Consumer
Price Index | 1.4 3.6 2.0 1.4 2.7 1.4 |
———————————————————————–
*-According to the Bank of Portugal, these forecasts do not include
any new budget cutting measures expected to be needed to meet fiscal
targets this year and next, nor do they include additional
deleveraging of the private sector, especially the banking system,
both of which will be “very substantial.” These factors mean the risks
to the forecasts are skewed sharply to the downside. In fact, central
bank expects GDP to contract in 2012, despite the +0.3% forecast.
[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$$CR$,M$$EC$,MAXDT$]
