China Q1 GDP and March activity data was out earlier:
- China March Retail sales 10.1% y/y (exp. 9.7%), Industrial production 6.0% y/y (exp. 6.3%)
- China Q1 GDP: 6.8% y/y (expected 6.8%)
- China stats bureau - US started trade disputes, neglected global trade rules
Some bank responses coming in, these in summary (and bolding mine):
Nomura:
- "The more timely March data, however, point to nascent signs of a growth slowdown underway, led by these old economy sectors.
- "We do not expect the growth in the new economy sectors to fully offset the slowdown in the old economy and heavily indebted sectors in the quarters ahead, and forecast GDP growth of 6.3 percent in Q4 2018."
DaiIchi:
- exports are doing well. This reflects a healthy global economy.
- Consumer spending is solid
- manufacturing sector is doing well
- expect growth this year of 6.6 percent, but trade friction between the United States and China is growing. If exports are driving China's growth, then there is potential damage from trade friction.
- Deleveraging is a concern. China will continue to gradually raise rates
JPM:
- domestic activity indicators, industrial production, FAI, retail sales ... they are holding up very well.
- Economic rebalancing plays a pretty important role. If you look at the policy side, there's no stimulus. The government talks about cutting excess capacity, talks about environment protection. Logically these efforts should slow down China's economic activity. But the negative impact is smaller than we thought.
