Barclays on the data to watch from Australia (after the hint from RBA head Lowe)

Earlier today Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe spoke, saying, amongst other things … but this specifically:

• 'labour market is key issue'

Barclays now, on how they are watching the jobs data:

• watching labour mkt data very closely in the next 3 months
• if the unemployment rate starts to rise towards 5.3-5.5%, we think the RBA may consider cutting policy rates by 25-50bp in H219.
• however, our base case remains for the RBA to stay on hold in 2019

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ICYMI, Lowe's comments:

• More from RBA's Lowe: Q3, Q4 GDP likely to be significantly below trend
• RBA Gov. Lowe: probabilities of hike or cut remain reasonably evenly balanced
• RBA's Lowe says difficult to imagine rates will rise in 2019