Barclays on "the perils of following consensus"
Barclays says to watch out for further badn wagon jumping in the consensus trades:
Volatility-adjusted weekly returns show that the performances of consensus trades are mixed in the first few weeks of the new year. and most tend to perform poorly from the fourth or fifth week onward.
- Our Global Macro Survey suggests that the USD and EUR are popular longs. whereas GBP is the most popular short.
That said, CFTC data do not suggest that all of these consensus trades are currently heavily positioned.
- There appears to be substantial participation in EUR longs but less for the USD longs and GBP shorts.