A couple of snippets from Barclays report overnight, but first, ICYMI:
US GDP data
Barclays take on the data:
- Altogether, the data show more momentum in the domestic economy in the second quarter.
- Final sales to domestic purchasers (GDP less trade and inventories) are now reported as growing 2.7% versus 2.4% previously.
- That said, the data do little to change the picture of an economy that continues to grow at a modest pace as the y/y change in GDP through Q2 is 2.2%; above our estimate of potential, but only modestly so. In addition, the GDP data may also simply be reflecting past difficulties with seasonal factors which have tended to suppress activity in Q1 and boost activity thereafter. Hence, some of the rebound in Q2 may be more statistical than real, just as some of the weakness in Q1 was also statistical.
Also, the bank remarks on end of month flows:
- Barclays passive rebalancing model at month-end points to moderate dollar buying vs. EUR and JPY
- And produces a more modest dollar buying signal against GBP, CAD and AUD