Lots of information to evaluate

It is not only about the statement, but market participants will also be sifting through the central tendencies and the projections for rates and making judgments about the future path of rates.

In December the following central tendencies for 2015 were projected:

GDP: 2.6% to 3.0%
Unemployment Rate: 5.2% to 5.3%

PCE inflation: 1.0% to 1.6%
Core PCE inflation: 1.5% to 1.8%

Needless to say, I would expect the Core PCE will be more important than the headline PCE.(oil is too great an impact).

Although GDP seems a bit high, especially given the 1st quarters sluggishness, the Fed official will likely give a free pass. If there is a sharper decline, it probably means they also are keeping "patient" in the wording. It would not make sense otherwise.

For 2016, the guesstimates were the following in December:

GDP: 2.5% to 3%.

Unemployment rate: 5.0% to 5.2%

PCE inflation: 1.7% to 2.0%

Core PCE inflation:1.7% to 2.0%

For this projection, it might be the headline PCE that might be more important. If the officials see a lower level, that is saying they are not too confident in inflation moving back toward 2% (I assume oil is more near a low. It may not go higher, but it should not go too much lower).

As far as the rate projections, of the 17 members in December, 15 saw a rate rise in 2015 while 2 saw the next rate rise in 2016.

The distribution of estimates were the following for 2015:

No change:2

between 0.5% to 0.75%: 2

between 0.75% to 1.0%: 4

between 1.25% to 1.5%: 3

between 1.5% to 1.75%: 2

between 1.75% to 2.0%: 4

I do not expect that the distribution is as high this time: This should add an element of softness, if the Fed, does take the word "patient" out.

The other years may also show softer estimates.

The combination of statement, the central tendencies, rate projections from the "dot chart" and the press conference should have something for everyone. So be careful. Watch the levels and understand the market is likely to be up and down as the data is interpreted. My guess is that the best trending opportunity would be if patient stays in as it will also likely mean Central Tendencies are less bullish and rate projections are also lower. Taking out patient, although likely to lead to a move higher in the dollar, may get tossed around by the other stuff.