WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of the Federal Reserve
assessment of the Fourth District’s economy in its Beige Book
survey of economic conditions published Wednesday:

FOURTH DISTRICT — CLEVELAND

The economy in the Fourth District showed further signs of
strengthening since our last report. Manufacturers told us that the rise
in production which began late last year continued, although orders
remain below pre-recession levels. Contacts in non-residential
construction noted some signs of renewed growth, but they are concerned
about its sustainability. Financing remains a major issue for
residential and commercial contractors. Sales figures from District
retailers and auto dealers showed a moderate improvement. Energy
production was mixed and reports indicate a continuing upturn in freight
transport volume. Demand by businesses and consumers for new loans
remains weak, although some bankers noted that the lending environment
is starting to grow more competitive.

A pickup in employment was notable in the manufacturing sector,
where businesses are recalling some workers and increasing production
hours. A majority of staffing-firm representatives indicated that new
job openings increased, primarily in healthcare. Wage pressures continue
to be contained. Apart from rising prices for steel and petroleum-based
products, raw materials and product pricing was generally stable.

Manufacturing. Reports from District factories showed that
production was largely stable or rose slightly during the past six
weeks, with a few of our contacts citing an increase in their backlogs.
Most manufacturers told us that production levels have increased on a
year-over-year basis, though by varying amounts. In general, our
respondents are cautiously optimistic and expect their sales to increase
at a modest rate going into summer, but they are not expecting a return
to pre-recession levels through the end of the year. Steel shipments
were better than anticipated, with rising volume being driven primarily
by autos, energy, and heavy equipment. Looking forward, many of our
steel contacts said that they are uncertain if the rise in volume is
sustainable in the long-term. Nonetheless, they expect shipping volume
during the next few months to at least approach levels seen in the first
quarter. District auto production was stable in February on a
month-over-month basis, and showed a substantial rise when comparing
year-over-year data for both domestic and foreign nameplates.

Reports on inventories were mixed. Half of our contacts said that
product supplies are low relative to demand, while others reported that
their inventories remain well balanced. Capacity utilization continued a
slow upward trend. Capital outlays are on target, with monies being
allocated primarily for maintenance projects, new equipment, or IT
upgrades. Manufacturers said that outlays will remain below
pre-recession levels until a robust recovery is underway. We heard many
reports of increasing steel prices, which were attributed primarily to
rising raw materials (iron ore, scrap, and alloys) costs. There was
little response on the part of manufacturers to raise their own prices
because of relatively weak market conditions. However, some of our
respondents are beginning to initiate materials surcharges. We heard
numerous reports of recalling laid-off workers and increased work hours,
while new hiring was limited to temporaries. Wage pressures are
contained.

Real Estate

In general, new home sales improved slightly during the past six
weeks and on a year-over-year basis. Nonetheless, some builders are
struggling to close sales. Purchases of entry-level homes continue to do
well, and several contacts told us that the move-up category is gaining
momentum. Builders expressed concern about the potential effect on home
sales when the first-time home buyersf tax credit expires and the
downward pressure on home prices, which they attributed to unreliable
appraisals. They also reported that banks remain unwilling to lend money
for constructing spec houses or buying land. Homebuilders are not
anticipating a big turnaround in the housing market, and they expect
total sales volume in 2010 will equal or be slightly greater than last
year’s volume. Little change was noted in the list prices of new homes,
construction material costs, and subcontractor pricing. General
contractors and subcontractors continue to operate with skeleton crews.

Activity in non-residential construction showed early signs of a
pickup. Inquiries have improved, and many contractors said that they are
beginning to rebuild their backlogs. Most projects currently under-way
fall within the industrial and energy categories. Half of our contacts
are uncertain about the level of construction activity for the remainder
of 2010, while others see a small improvement when compared to 2009. We
continue to hear accounts of difficulties in obtaining project
financing, even for credit-worthy borrowers. Increased costs for
construction materials were limited to steel and petroleum-based
products. General contractors reported that other than seasonal hiring,
their employment levels have been flat. Subcontractors are still
struggling, with many of them taking on projects at cost.

Consumer Spending

For the period from mid-February through mid-March, retail sales
were generally stronger when compared to the previous 30-day period and
were up on a year-over-year basis. Although consumers continue to focus
on buying necessities over discretionary items, retailers noted that
they see a pickup in the sales of home furnishings. Looking forward,
retailers are cautiously optimistic, and most expect sales to improve
somewhat during the second quarter. Vendor and store pricing has been
relatively stable. Retailers commented that they are placing less
emphasis on promotions and markdowns, and store inventories continued on
the lean side. Auto dealers characterized new vehicle sales from
mid-February through mid-March as decent, with little change when
compared to year-ago sales. Used-vehicle purchases are holding steady.
Overall, sales are expected to show a modest improvement at best during
the second quarter. Dealer inventory positions have improved since our
last report, though a few dealers still characterize it as light.
Several contacts told us that buyer credit is beginning to loosen, as
community banks and credit unions are becoming more aggressive. Reports
show little change in staffing levels at retailers or auto dealers.

Banking

Demand for new business loans remains weak, although a few bankers
noted that they are beginning to see their pipelines become more active.
Interest rates were steady. Some of our respondents also commented that
the lending environment is growing more competitive. On the consumer
side, loan demand was mixed. While several bankers said that demand was
very weak, others are seeing a slight increase, which they attributed to
seasonal factors and draw-downs on HELOCs. The residential mortgage
market is stable, with most activity dominated by refinancings. Core
deposits continued to show strong growth at most banks. Interest spreads
are widening due primarily to term deposit repricing. Credit standards
have not changed appreciably in the past six weeks, though commercial
real estate lending is receiving closer scrutiny. Reports on the credit
quality of loan applicants were mixed. Almost all of our respondents
told us that delinquencies have stabilized or declined. Employment
growth at banks was limited to some strategic hires.

Energy

Little change in oil and natural gas output was reported during the
past six weeks, with only a slight increase expected during the second
quarter. Spot prices for natural gas are on the decline, while oil
prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. We heard mixed reports on
coal production. One producer noted that demand from off-shore customers
for metallurgical coal has increased significantly and that his company
is reopening one of its idled mines. Prices for coal were mixed but
tended to the upside. In general, capital expenditures showed a modest
improvement. Production equipment and materials costs were flat,
although we heard some reports that the rise in steel prices is making
its way down the supply chain. Employment was steady, and little hiring
is expected in the near future. Wage pressures are contained.

Transportation

Freight transport executives reported that shipping volume
continues to show a gradual improvement, and they expect this trend to
persist for the remainder of the year. However, profit margins remain
constrained due primarily to overcapacity and rising fuel costs, which
have to be absorbed into the current rate structure. Apart from fuel
prices, operating costs have been relatively stable, although there is
some concern about rising costs associated with regulatory compliance.
Equipment purchases remain at low levels, with little change expected
until there is a substantial pickup in shipping volume. Hiring was
limited to replacement only.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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