The inventory data flows into the GDP data that we will get later this week
- For Q2 2018 (that is April to June economic growth)
OK, for today (expected etc is here from earlier: ) :
Preview via ANZ:
- We expect a 0.4%% rise in inventories in Q2. This would see private non-farm inventories take just over 0.1ppt off GDP growth in the quarter.
- Measures of inventories are notoriously difficult to forecast, particularly volatile and subject to large revisions. They can often be key swing factors for GDP. Keep in mind that the volatile farm and public inventories numbers (not included in this release) can swing the National Accounts measure of total inventories around.
Sound words from ANZ indeed.
More, this via NAB:
- We expect a small detraction from growth by inventories
Via Westpac:
- The March quarter outcome was an oversized 0.7% increase in total inventories, inflated by a near $1.4bn run-up in inventories for wholesale and retail. Across other sectors, inventories had a soft result, down 0.3% to still be 2.6% above the level of a year ago
- For the June quarter, we anticipate a two-fold correction: (1) for wholesale and retail, a draw-down of inventories after the sharp run-up; and (2) across the rest of the economy, a return to a more typical inventory increase in response to growing demand.
- On balance, we expect inventories to increase by 0.3%, implying a slight drag on growth in the quarter, of around -0.1ppt (potentially rounding to -0.2ppts).
