A preview of the inflation data due from the UK today (14 November 2018) at 0930GMT

Nomura:

UK Consumer price inflation, Oct

  • We forecast an unchanged CPI print of 2.4% and an unchanged RPI print of 3.3%. While oil prices fell in October, during the month they were, on average, higher than in September, so there should be no downside pull from this. Also, forecast errors for October have tended to be on the downside in recent years for both RPI and CPI inflation, presenting possible downside risks to consensus forecasts.

UK Producer price inflation, Oct

  • Despite the recent notable fall, oil prices rose on average from September to October. The upward impact on import prices during the month should, however, be tempered by a rise in sterling's trade weighted index. This explains our modest +0.5% monthly forecast. As for output prices, we expect a smaller 0.1% increase (core), which would be in line with the PMI and CBI output price indicators during the month.

HSBC:

  • Inflation surprised to the downside in September, with the headline CPI rate dropping from 2.7% to 2.4% y-o-y. The inflationary effect of the 2016 sterling depreciation continues to wane, perhaps a little more quickly than we might have thought. And despite recent gains in wage growth, domestically generated inflation (services inflation, for example) remains low.
  • We expect the CPI rate to hold steady in October. Despite recent falls in the oil price, petrol pump prices held up in October such that the annual rate of fuel inflation is likely to edge up. But at the same time, we think the continued waning of FX effects will see the core CPI rate edge down from 1.9% to 1.8% y-o-y.

RBC:

  • Once again, fuel prices play a major role in determining the October CPI outturn. Though the rise in petrol prices eased last month, they fell in the same month a year earlier leaving the y/y change in prices largely unchanged. That will mean that the major upward contribution to CPI should continue to come from the transport category. The other feature of last month's CPI release was a very sharp easing in food prices which we expect to reverse somewhat this month. Overall we see CPI inflation at 2.6% y/y but with oil prices having moderated we expect that CPI will fall in the remaining months of the year to align with the Bank of England's recently updated forecast for Q4 inflation to average 2.5% y/y.

--

But, yeah, focus is of course Brexit