The long bond is the big focus
US 10-year yields rose to the highest since 2011 today but the bigger technical level is in 30 years.
The resistance is easy to spot as it ranges from the current level of 3.18% to 3.25%. With rates up 5 bps today, it won't take much more to bust out.
Bill Gross thinks it won't happen. He highlights the long-term downtrend over the past 30-years, which comes in a 3.22%.
"Will 3.22% be broken to upside?" he asks on Twitter. "I don't think so. The economy can't support yields higher than 3.25% for 30s and 10s, nor 3% for 5s. Continuing hibernating bond bear market is best forecast."
If he's right it doesn't necessarily mean the US dollar will reverse right away but it would be a good sign for stocks and would limit how far the US dollar might run.